【5月10日】【CHLR应用微观讲座】

主   题：

Product Heterogeneous Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Trade: Big Data Context Analysis Based on Chinese Newspapers

Dongmei GUO, Bing LI, Anqi LIN

School of Economics

School of International Trade and Economics

Central University of Finance and Economics

主讲人： Li Bing

摘   要：This study adopts both the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index from Baker et al (2016) and a newly constructed economic policy uncertainty index based onChinese newspapers (CEPU), utilizes Chinese imports and exports monthly data of about 5000 products (HS6 level) from January 2010 to April 2016, and examines the product heterogeneous effects of economic policy uncertainty on trade flows. We find that some products respond to economic policy uncertainty negatively, while some others positively. Further, we try to explain the heterogeneous effects by BEC categories, product differentiation, product sophistication, and market concentration. And we find that capital goods and consumption goods are more positive than intermediate goods responding to economic policy uncertainty, differentiated goods are more positive than homogenous goods, high sophistical goods are more positive than low sophistical goods, high concentrated goods are more positive than low concentrated goods. Besides, we find that CEPU performs much better than EPU, which indicates that big data context analysis should adopt Chinese sources rather than English sources.

Key Words: Economic Policy Uncertainty; Trade; Product Heterogeneity; Big Data

JEL Codes: G31，F10，F12

关于主讲人：Professor Li is the Head of Trade Economics of School of International Trade and Economics at Central University of Finance and Economics. His fields of interest includes Foreign Direct Investment, Political Economy, Trade and Environment, Industrial Organization, Transition Economics, Multinational Corporation, China Economic Reform and Applied Econometrics. He has published in The Economics of Transition, The Journal of World Economy (in Chinese) 世界经济, and Economic Research Journal (in Chinese) 经济研究, etc.

时间：2018年5月10日 星期四12:30-13:45

地点：学术会堂南楼608室

主办单位：人力资本与劳动经济研究中心