Title: Does China's Debt-for-Bond Swap Reduce Banks' Risk?

Speaker: Chen Song

Abstract: China's local government debt (LGD) has grown rapidly since aggressive fiscal stimuli were introduced 2009 in the wake of global financial crisis. Commercial banks have been the main creditors of the LGD. As Chinese economy slows down, the repayment ability and associated risk incurred to the banking sector have become a growing concern. The StateCouncil thus introduced the debt-for-bond swap program on March 12th 2015.Using an augmented CAPM with the panel data of 14 Chinese domestic commercial banks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, we examine the market-perceived effect of the swap program on the systematic risk of banks. We find that thereis a significant decrease in the share price beta of the banks, suggesting that the market has recognized a risk-reducing effect of the debt swap. We further decompose this beta effect into a volatility component and a market correlation component. The results show that the decrease in beta is largely due to a decrease in the variance of banks relative to the market. The market correlation effect is relatively small. Therefore, the debt-for-bond swap playslesser role in reducing systemic risk than reducing banks' individual risk.

About Chen Song: Sheis an assistant professor in School of Banking and Finance, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE). She obtained her PhD degree in Economics at GeorgeWashington University. She specialized in Public Finance, Regional Economics and Environmental Economics.

Date: Dec, 1st, 2016

Time: 15:30-17:00PM

Location: Room608, Academic Hall, CUFE