Title:Bounding Average and Quantile Effects of Training on Employment and Unemployment Durations under Selection, Censoring, and Noncompliance.

Speaker:Xuan Chen

Abstract: Using data from a randomized evaluation of the Job Corps (JC) training program, we estimate nonparametric bounds for average and quantile treatment effects of training on employment and unemployment duration. Under relatively weak assumptions, we bound these effects addressing three pervasive problems in randomized evaluations: sample selection, censoring, and noncompliance. The first arises when the individuals’ decision to experience employment or unemployment spells is endogenous and potentially affected by the program. Censoring arises when the duration outcome is fully observed only for individuals who have completed a full spell by the end of the observation period, with the extent of censoring being potentially affected by training. Noncompliance is present when some assigned participants do not receive training and some assigned nonparticipants receive training. Ignoring these issues would yield biased estimates of the effects. Our results indicate that JC training increases the average duration in weeks of the last complete employment spell before week 208 after randomization by at least 10.7 log points (11.3 percent) for individuals who comply with their treatment assignment and who would experience a complete employment spell whether or not they enrolled in JC. The proposed approach allows us to also bound the wage effects of JC for these individuals during those spells. We find that JC increases their average wages by between 6.2 and 13.7 log points (6.4 and 14.7 percent), suggesting that JC not only helps these individuals to maintain their jobs longer, but also that those jobs are better paid. We find no distinguishable effects of JC on average unemployment duration. The quantile results reflect heterogeneous effects and strengthen our conclusions based on the average effects.

About Xuan Chen: Xuan Chen, she is an assistant professor in School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China. She obtained her PhD degree in Economics at University of Miami (Florida). She specialized in Program Evaluation, Labor Economics.

Date: May, 31st, 2017

Time: 14:00-15:15 PM

Location: Room 608, Academic Hall, CUFE